Futures are all over the map this morning, but are currently flat as Challenger job cuts reached the highest level for October in 22 years.

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The market reminds us of the line from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises: “gradually, and then suddenly.”

Futures are flat following yesterday’s horrid performance as the government shutdown becomes the longest ever. We also just heard that the nation’s airspace could be closed over Thanksgiving due to a lack of air traffic controllers. And, Trump’s “mandate” is now clearly in question as virtually every important election was won by Democrats. All this, on top of news that Michael Burry had in effect shorted $115 billion of notional on some of the Street’s highest priced darlings.

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Futures are off sharply after billionaire investor Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame, disclosed his purchase of five million put options on Palantir and one million put options on NVIDIA.

ES has reached our first downside target.

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Futures are up moderately as we shuffle toward the end of the year ramp.

The negative divergence continues, outpaced only by the concentration into AI and associated tech, much of which has questionable profitability.

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ES is rebounding nicely after yesterday’s tumble. But, the algos forgot to even backtest the 10-day moving average or even close a gap or two. Bottom line, TPTB are getting sloppy. At this rate, the marks (the investing public) are going to start to suspect something…

With ACA enrollment starting tomorrow and millions of registered voters about to experience huge stick shock, we get the feeling the government shutdown will soon end.

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The futures are off moderately following an FOMC meeting that surprised many observers. Powell threw cold water on the bulls’ insistence that we’d get another rate cut in December.

“A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.”

The algos made up most of the initial losses, but hinky earnings reports by some of the biggest stocks in the Mag 7 (META and MSFT) weren’t well received.

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Futures are up moderately ahead of today’s FOMC decision.

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Looking at our gas vs inflation chart, it sure looks questionable.

But, the Trump sycophants tripping over each other to assume the chairmanship next year would have us believe there is no such thing as an ill-advised rate cut.

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Futures are up sharply on Bessent’s comments on Sunday that a trade deal with China was imminent. We have no details on the deal – e.g. whether or not it would benefit the US if it is actually happening. All we know if that it’s happening right before a very important FOMC meeting, perhaps to tamp down FOMC fears about more tariff-driven increases in inflation.

Of course, it might not matter if AI superintelligence kills us all off anyway.

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CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but it’s still going in the wrong direction.

And, most economists expect CPI to continue rising. Is it logical to expect a FOMC rate cut next week?

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