Futures are up sharply on Bessent’s comments on Sunday that a trade deal with China was imminent. We have no details on the deal – e.g. whether or not it would benefit the US if it is actually happening. All we know if that it’s happening right before a very important FOMC meeting, perhaps to tamp down FOMC fears about more tariff-driven increases in inflation.

Of course, it might not matter if AI superintelligence kills us all off anyway.

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CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but it’s still going in the wrong direction.

And, most economists expect CPI to continue rising. Is it logical to expect a FOMC rate cut next week?

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Oil prices soared on news that Trump is imposing sanctions on Russia, targeting the country’s two largest oil companies. Futures are off slightly as algos contemplate the impact on inflation.

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Futures are flat ahead of the open as the government shutdown enters its fourth week.

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Futures are flat following a sharp increase yesterday prompted by White House suggestions that the government shutdown was near an end.

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Futures are moderately higher as traders continue to pin their hopes on tech stocks and brush off inflation fears.

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RBOB reached our 1.75 target forecast from last year. As we have discussed many times over the past year, the administration’s emphasis on drilling, OPEC’s deference to Trump, and a slowing global economy have enabled a substantial drop over the last 3 1/2 years.

As is often the case, we have to pay as much attention to Trump’s latest social media posts as to actual economic data. Yesterday’s sharp selloff continued overnight but was “corrected” by another TACO missive on China tariffs. The 50-day moving average was saved again.

Trump said on Friday his proposed 100% tariff on goods from China would not be sustainable, adding that he would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks and that he thought things would be fine with China.”It’s not sustainable, but that’s what the number is,” Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network. “They forced me to do that.”

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Another overnight ramp job. Another selloff as we approach the open –  market action which begs the question: when will the bubble burst?

The chorus of naysayers continues to grow.

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Futures are up sharply on optimism surrounding AI and Fed rate cuts. That’s right. Things are going so well that the Fed needs to drastically cut rates. Or, so the logic goes.

Seemingly everyone agrees that the economy is increasingly polarized, with the “haves” doing very well and the “have nots” under a lot of stress. It seems highly likely that AI taking away entry level jobs will exacerbate this problem – with those affected facing much higher healthcare, utilities and student loan expenses. Will the market care?

The deportations taking place across the country will no doubt open up some jobs, but I don’t see new college grads with $30,000+ in student debt lining up to pick strawberries.

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It seems that China has finally realized the leverage they possess: Trump’s fear of market corrections. There is nothing that matters more to him, as his personal wealth and public perception are intrinsically tied to the DJIA.

Perhaps this realization is the rationale behind China’s recent trade counterattack. Futures are not amused, retracing much of yesterday’s kneejerk reaction to Trump’s TACO moment over the weekend.

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