The latest dismal economic news — which the market is ignoring in favor of unsubstantiated rumors of an imminent trade deal with China — is real personal spending which dropped 0.6% in December to a 10-year low. So much for Mr. Kudlow’s retail sales “glitch.”
Futures, of course, are much more interested in the latest VIX decline and USDJPY rally. 
continued for members…
Futures are up 17 points at present, with 2805.66 and 2809.56 as the .786 and .886 bogeys.
SPX is in a similar mode, likely to test the horizontal resistance at 2808.
Things have been tough for the bears since VIX broke below the rising red channel bottom… 
…and is now locked in a falling channel headed for a 12 handle.
USDJPY rebounded from below its midline and is testing the channel top again. A breakout would drive a nail into the bears’ coffin.
DXY is getting a respite. But, EURUSD and USDJPY suggest it might be shortlived.
And, though CL and RB have reached the top of their less-steep rising channels, RB in particular still has room to go with its .618 and SMA200 just above at 1.7964-1.8125. CL’s SMA200 is further away, but still represents an attractive target around the end of March.
UPDATE: 12:30 PM
The hits just keep coming. ISM and consumer confidence disappointed, and the Atlanta and NY Feds are forecasting 1Q GDP growth below 1%.
This prompted SPX to reverse almost exactly at 2808; but, it’s not doing bears any favors. ES found a TL it liked — which just so happens to be where the SMA10 will land on Monday.
In an apparent ploy to support the dollar, rates have actually popped higher.
Yet, USDJPY has yet to break out.
And, GC has closed its gap.
For now at least, RB and CL are backing off their channel tops. 
Surprise! (Not.)
Comments
2 responses to “Not So Glitchy”
Hello PW, your description of yield curve model left me a great impression.
Correct me if I am wrong. Do you mean to say if the yield curve model has to happen, it would be as early of this month? (I could be wrong about this impression.)
Thank you!
There has typically been a lag — which has varied in length. Yes, it could be as early as this month, with Mar 30 being a key date for an interim/final bottom if/when it occurs.