Anyone else getting tired of SPX being propped up all day long, only to tag our target on a gap down the following morning?

It’s great if you play the futures and can manage the overnight risk.  But, for cash investors, it’s just one more way that TPTB are preventing you from participating in the gains while sticking you with losses.

USDJPY and CL are leading the way this morning, with ES currently off 25 points — but, more importantly, one point below the daily SMA200.

continued for members…

CL is looking uglier by the second.  It took out the minor Fib support and the more important 37.07.  The next major support if the .886 at 26.22. SPX’s initial target is the SMA200, after which we’ll see whether it bounces (it should.)If it doesn’t, then we’ll look for the white .618 (2062.02), the white .786 (2053.37) and white .886 (2048.22) in succession.  BTW, the ES and SPX are back in sync.

UPDATE:  9:37 AM

Taking profits on the short and will try a long position here at the .786.  Very tight stops, as the .886 is the much better target.  At this point, I’m simply watching ES, USDJPY and CL to see if I can spot a shift in direction/momentum.  USDJPY just tagged its .618 and appears to be reversing.
We’ll watch for a bounce tot he .618 and/or the SMA200.

UPDATE:  9:47 AM

There’s the .618.  We’ll watch for the SMA200 at 2064.63, tight stops advised.UPDATE:  9:50 AM

I think that’s close enough.  To cash here at 2062.85.USDJPY and CL — which provided the bounce — are slowing down.  And, ES is likely to at least backtest the SMA200. UPDATE:  10:11 AM

The 5-min SMA10 just caught down with SPX.  I’ll try a short position here at 2061.15 with very tight stops.  The objective is the .886 at 2048.22.Not terribly confident on this one, as CL is still inching higher and looks likely to tag 37.75 when the SMA100 does.  Getting there would probably get SPX to 2064.35.  UPDATE:  10:25 AM

Almost there.  Just reached 2053.21 — exact same price as earlier (ES made a new low.)  I’ll be looking for signs of a reversal with the expectation of going long at 2048ish.BTW, I’m looking for USDJPY to reverse at the purple channel line.UPDATE:  10:3 AM

Not sure why, but USDJPY and CL just took off for the moon.  I’ll close the short here at 2056.17 and go to cash.UPDATE:  10:37 AM

Here’s the CL spurt.  It tagged 37.75 as expected.  We’ll see if it perhaps sets up another short after SPX settles — perhaps as SPX tags its (white) SMA10 at, say, 2062ish. UPDATE:  10:45 AM

SPX testing the SMA200.  I’d short it here with very tight stops, as the MAs are on the rise.UPDATE:  10:50 AM

CL just popped through the previous low.  SPX isn’t following it yet, but watch your stops.  Will probably be closing the short. UPDATE:  10:53 AM

CL keeps going, and SPX now responding.  I’ll close the short here and go to cash.UPDATE:  11:11 AM

CL dumping, and USDJPY slumping back below SMA20.  I’ll try a short position here and see if we can’t get another leg down. UPDATE:  11:20 AM

No joy.  USDJPY spiking higher, closing the short.  It might just be a bump leading into the euro close, but rather safe than sorry.I have a conference call coming up in a few minutes, followed by a meeting after that.  So, I’m going to sign off for now.

The 5-min SMA10 will be along shortly, should provide support.  But, be alert for signs of weakness after 11:30.  I still like 2048 — even if TPTB aren’t in the mood to allow it just yet.

GLTA.

UPDATE:  11:38 AM

UPDATE 11:48 AM

Short! UPDATE:  2:04 PM

No dice.  Back to cash.UPDATE:  2:25 PM

SPX just tested a TL off yesterday’s highs and is reversing.  I’d short it on any push through the SMA10 at 2066.61.  Just remember that the daily SMA200 is now strong support.  And, USDJPY is back above lots of moving averages. UPDATE:  2:51 PM

I’m short on the drop through the 5-min SMA10.  Just know that this is about the time that the “market” usually breaks out for no particular reason and spikes up to the 5-min SMA200 (currently 2073.31.)  So, watch out for that.USDJPY threatening a breakout of its megaphone.  Note that it did so at the end of the yesterday’s session.UPDATE:  3:02 PM

Getting some momentum……but watch out for ES ruining things.  Getting support ffom little white TL.

UPDATE:  3:33 PM

Yes, again.  All over again.  VIX getting monkey-hammered.  Will close out the short position if SPX pushes through the SMA200.UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Heading toward a close at the SMA200.  USDJPY still threatening a breakout.    Watch your stops. UPDATE:  3:49 PM

Closed out at the SMA200… …as VIX gets creamed……and, USDJPY finds a steeper positive vector on which to close out. This is the place where I say I think it’s going lower tomorrow, with the 2048.22 target still looking good.  But, only hold short overnight if you can hedge or watch it closely.

Gotta run a couple of errands, will be back later.  If it dips below 2064.33 into the close, go short with the above caveats.

UPDATE:  3:57 PM

Shorting here at 2064.63 for the close.UPDATE:  4:03 PM

What a surprise (not!)  USDJPY is tumbling mere minutes after the close.  SPX managed to shed a few points, closed at 2063.74.