The 253K increase in nonfarm payrolls handily topped the 180K consensus. Likewise, unemployment dipped to 3.4% versus expectations of 3.6% and average hourly earnings printed a 0.5% increase versus expectations of 0.3%.

To be clear, this is not the kind of slowdown that would encourage a Fed pause or pivot. Yet, VIX has been hammered by 8.5% overnight, so futures are up over 30 points.

At what point will the market begin to believe the Fed’s “higher for longer” forecasts?

continued for members…

The big picture hasn’t changed much.  ES tagged its SMA50 yesterday, but SPX still hasn’t.

Oil and gas are up nicely on the positive jobs data and are providing a boost for TNX.

The 2s10s got all the way to the (dangerous for stocks) overhead resistance at -38 BPS before backing off to the current -43 bps. The 2Y is still showing a potential breakdown.