The past week saw ES retake its broken purple channel, then decisively break down, and, now, rally to test it all over again.  It’ll be interesting to see where it ends up when the music stops.The past few days have been driven primarily by the latest breakdown in VIX and breakout in USDJPY — nothing new.  Yet, for bears, there’s perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel.

continued for members…

VIX has a potential bump coming again (worth a shot at a long position if it retakes the SMA200 and yellow channel line)…

…and, USDJPY looks tired to me.  If you’re not already short, this is probably your last chance.DXY also looks weak.And, gold is probably close enough to our 1238 target to hazard a long position, with tight stops.  Note that 1237 completes a Gartley pattern from the July lows.  For those brave enough, watch it like a hawk here and if/when it reached the SMA200.

The hitch in the DXY picture is the EURUSD chart, which suggests a sharp drop in the pair around Jan 15 or Feb 15.ES and SPX keep finding new rising channels to bounce around in.  While ES’s are fairly well-formed, SPX is really a mess. And, last, RB has so far respected the cloud support –though it hasn’t retaken the red neckline.While, CL is simply bouncing along on the Fib fan line that provided a bottom last week.Both are obviously well above last year’s ranges, which should make for some difficult choices for the FOMC during its meeting tomorrow and Wednesday.