What seemed laughable two weeks ago actually happened today, as SPX reached 1321.97 intraday — 3 cents shy of our 1322 target drawn back on June 16 by studying trend lines. In so doing, it is within spitting distance of its IHS target as well as completing bearish Bat and Crab patterns. It reached our statistical target bumped up against the trendline which should limit the rally to these levels.
It is possible (not necessarily likely) that we’ll overshoot in the morning — possibly as high as 1326-1329. From there, the likely direction is down — either tomorrow or Monday. I’m expecting 1285-1300 within the next week or so, followed by a strong bounce back up to the 1315 area by July 15th and a subsequent dive to the low 1200s.
My confidence in this pattern unfolding over the next month is about 75% — less than I’ve had over the past several weeks. I hope to spend more time studying the charts tonight and will try to clarify things. But, I’m traveling this week, so might not have the time. The patterns to which I’ve referred are discussed in detail in various posts over the past several weeks.