January was our best month ever. Our monthly results came in at 36.28% versus a 5.07% loss for the S&P 500 — a nifty 41.35% outperformance.
It was made possible by pretty straight-forward chart patterns and huge volatility. None of January’s 19 sessions featured a daily range of less than 10 points. In fact, only one came in at under 20 points. By contrast, 8 had ranges of over 40 points and 5 had ranges of over 50 points!
Fifty points represents about a 2.5% move, so it’s not surprising we had some phenomenal days. January 13 [see: That Was a Close One] was a good example. SPX lost 48.40 points (-2.37%) overall. But, by anticipating and capitalizing on the huge intraday swings, we were able to rack up gains of 61.25 points (+3.19%)
January was very reminiscent of the pre-central bank manipulation era. Most days, it felt as though the “markets” were left to their own devices. Bottom line, it was a real delight for those of us who play both sides of the market.
The month started off with a failure (by 30 points) to reach the neckline of a large Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. The subsequent falling red channel (within the falling white channel) proved to be a very accurate guide. If only they were all like this…
We averaged a little over 6 position changes per session — higher than usual, but not excessive given the greater volatility. It was also a function of my preference for reverting to cash after reaching a target in order to prevent subsequent bounces from reclaiming gains.
We also go to cash every night, even though it often means leaving some money on the table. Like December, there were many end-of-day plunges that closed below technical support which were magically ramped back to a big gain in the futures overnight.
Our average monthly result bumped up slightly from 17.10% to 18.58%. We’re obviously overdue for a quieter month with less spectacular results. But, if the first week of February is any indication, it’s not going to happen any time soon.
A reminder to members, I recently set up a private Twitter account @pebbletrades to disseminate notices of intraday position changes. If you trade frequently, just go to the twitter page and click “follow.” This generates a request that I can then approve. It’s generally pretty fast unless you make the request in the midst of a busy session.
If your twitter handle bears no resemblance to your actual name, please drop me a line saying so. This service is for subscribers only, and I’d hate to inadvertently exclude you.
Note that I will still post all intraday position changes on the website, first. Once the post is entered, I tweet a trade alert that usually references the position change in some way (e.g. “target reached.”) Hopefully, these tweets will make it less necessary to constantly refresh the web page throughout the day.
I’ve had a few inquiries about holding another promotion. Our regular annual rate is $1,750 — about $33/week or $4.80/day. I consider it a pretty fair price for what I have been told is one of the top forecasting services out there. But, people like deals. I get it. Here’s ours.
Last month, I offered a promotional price ($640.42) that reflected the compounded return on a member’s hypothetical $10,000 trading account ($64,042) in the event that they were able to follow every single market call to the letter. It was a great way to celebrate a successful 2015.
Given last month’s 36.28% results, this hypothetical trading account would theoretically now be up to $87,277. So, we’ll set this month’s promotion at $872.77. It’s about half price, which works out to around $2.73/day — less than a caramel frappo-mocha-macchia-latte at the local java shop — with about half the calories.
I’ll even throw in the “Charter” part. It’s different from a regular annual membership in that your rate will never increase as long as you subscribe to the site. To sign up, just click on the link below.