Is there any amount of CL ramping that can compensate for what’s going on in USDJPY?  Apparently so, because the eminis are off only 10 points in the midst of a USDJPY bloodbath. Were it not for CL’s coincidental 1.25% rally, it would be much, much worse.

SPX tagged yesterday’s target, then eased a little lower still — meaning the next downside target was probably in play.  Look for it to be nailed in the opening hour.

BTW, don’t watch the above clip if you’ve a dentist appointment any time soon.  Otherwise, it’s a masterpiece.  Enjoy!After that, it’ll depend on when the BoJ blinks.

continued for members…

For now, it has found support at the red channel bottom and is likely to bounce back within the white channel bottom — wherever that ends up being.  Note that it has also finally tagged the white .886, which should give it some bounce potential — possibly a lot.

A reminder, both 2063.31 and 2065.25 are legitimate targets.  The .786 at 2065.25 is the more important, since it’s a reaction to the yellow .886 tag 10 days ago.

And, that’s why this morning’s target will take some effort.  ES already reached its .786 moments ago.  In order for SPX to shed 10-12 points, ES will have to push below its .786 and quite possibly Apr 18’s lows.  But, that’s okay, as the .618 at 2056.43 is a very appealing target.SPX would also have to drop through its white channel bottom, but I don’t see that as as big a problem.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE:  9:52 AM

SPX just reached the 2065.25 target and is considering the 2063.31 one.  Wherever it does bounce, I’d look for a nice snapback rally based on USDJPY breaking out and CL rebounding. UPDATE:  10:03 AM

ES is bouncing at its purple midline, so I’ll assume SPX is done — at least for now.  Back to long here with very tight stops.Remember, SPX completed a H&S yesterday that targets 2045ish.  And, there’s a very legitimate target at 2050 as well. And, ES has another downside target at the yellow TL should it choose to tag it today.Bottom line, it isn’t necessarily over just yet.

UPDATE:  10:25 AM

Might be a head fake, but SPX seems to have run out of gas already.  I’d take profits on the long position here and revert to short.  The SMA5 10 has arrived, and it could prompt another leg down.Tight stops are recommended, as CL and USDJPY remain in a position to break out. UPDATE:  10:33 AM

CL is ramping, so I’ll cut loose the short position and revert to cash until the picture is clearer.UPDATE:  10:39 AM

When the SMA5 10 doesn’t provoke a reversal, the SMA5 20 usually does.  It’s worth a shot, shorting here with tight stops.USDJPY seems to suggest there could be some downside……though CL is standing pat at the moment.As always, watch for the SMA5 10 to support it.  Currently about 2064.41.

UPDATE:  10:52 AM

USDJPY just reached TL support.  If it drops through, more downside.  If not, SPX should bounce here. Remember, ES has support at 2049.50ish — about SPX 2055.  This could be sloppy.

UPDATE:  11:35 AM

ES has reached the yellow TL.  So, this could turn at any moment — even though the 2050.91 target is still several points away.UPDATE: 12:15 PM

ES is back above the yellow TL.   CL and USDJPY have bounced, too. I’ll take profits on the short and go to cash.   I wouldn’t be surprised to see lower lows later in the day, perhaps at the close.  Though, it could just as easily wait until Monday.If USDJPY and NKD reverse, then I’d be back to short.  But, they’re on the brink of breaking out and SPX is stalling.  And, VIX looks like it’s losing momentum.  UPDATE:  1:30 PM

NKD, CL and USDJPY are heading lower as SPX loses the SMA5 50, so I’ll take a shot at shorting here for the 2050 target.  If that falls, then we could see 2045 at the close.

Watch out, though, for the rising SMA5 10.  If it holds the white channel bottom at 2060.60ish, it could easily bounce up to the .786 at 2065.25.  And, if it breaks through, then the white midline at 2072. UPDATE:  1:58 PM

Quick progress report… UPDATE:  2:19 PM

CL is spiking, so I’ll step aside and go to cash until it sorts itself out. SPX and ES just made new lows on the day, and lately they’ve been pawning truncated 5ths off on us like crazy.  Odds are, they’re just trying to slow things down, stretch out until the close, but who knows?UPDATE:  2:37 PM

CL is falling back below the white TL, but looks like it’s likely to pop up and tag the SMA5 200 at 46.12.  Keep a close eye on it as we short here for 2050.91 and possibly 2042.61.UPDATE:  11:48 AM

There goes CL.  Back to cash if it doesn’t reverse at the SMA5 20 at 2057.30. UPDATE:  2:58 PM

I have to be away from my computer for the next 30 minutes or so.  SPX is just stalling here, but you all know the drill.  If it has a sustained move above the SMA5 20, now at 2056.80, cover.

If it keeps dropping, cover at 2050.91 or, if it seems to have momentum and CL/USDJPY aren’t spiking, hold out for 2042-2045.  If it’s still heading south at that point, the next support isn’t until the previous low at 2033.80.

I should be back no later than 3:40.