Inflation: Not Quite Low Enough

CPI came in at 1.8%, down from 2.0% in April.  Core CPI registered 2.0%, down from 2.1%.  For the month, CPI rose 0.1% in May versus 0.3% in April.  Core rose 0.1% for the fourth straight month.

A slew of categories fell in May, with the big drops coming in energy and vehicles offsetting increases in food and shelter.  Had gasoline prices not dropped substantially over the past month, we’d probably be looking at 2.0% CPI again.

All in all, the results simply don’t scream “rate cut.”  This should disappoint the market.  So far, the futures are taking things in stride.  But, there’s a big potential downdraft if ES drops through 2872.continued for members


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