As expected, futures just joined SPX in making new all-time highs. All it took was sneaking CL above its SMA200 and repeatedly hammering VIX below its SMA10. Child’s play for central planners.
But, in guarding against any declines, ever, they have run into some issues that might limit the techniques’ effectiveness going forward. We’ll take a look, and update currencies while we’re at it.
Last week’s targets and caveats remain in place.
continued for members…
ES’ new highs:
CL: pinned between the SMA200 and the red TL dating back to May 4.
USDJPY: broken down but back in backtest mode for supportive purposes.
Remember, this is all USD driven. Even the big banks are starting to admit that the odds of a rate hike are slipping. Our DXY forecast from May 1 is suddenly starting to look pretty good.
This leaves SPX in the same place as yesterday, provided it can hold the new highs.
XIV has topped out at 82.55 unless VIX can push below the SMA10 and tag the purple channel bottom. If XIV breaks below its SMA10 at 79.45, there’s a very good chance it will close last week’s gap and test its SMA100 at 67ish.
UPDATE: 9:38 AM
SPX slipping back below 2403.87 on slippage in the algo fuel. It might just be gap filling, but if the SMA5 10 doesn’t hold at the red TL at 2402.16, the SMA10 and SMA5 200 at 2395.17 is a likely target.
As I mentioned last night, I have to be out of the office for a couple of hours this morning. I’m going to update the EURUSD charts, and will check back in around 1:30.
UPDATE: 10:47 AM
ES is closing in on its SMA10 as well as the purple midline and red TL — so, almost to support as SPX approaches the SMA5 200 and SMA10. I’d be prepared to cover the short here.
But, note that DX is still slipping and has further to go. In other words, we could get a full backtest of the purple channel top at 2392.80. It that fails, the yellow channel top is back in focus.
Quick preview of the EURUSD breakout…
Taking off now, will check back in later.
UPDATE: 2:29 PM
Closing in on SMA5 200 again, this time with ES and SPX SMA10s in sync. In other words, if it dips below the SMA5 200, both should be able to tag their SMA10s at the same time.
UPDATE: 3:58 PM
Didn’t quite make it there, but tomorrow’s another day. I’d look for further drops on continued CL and DX weakness.
