Futures regained most of yesterday’s intraday losses following a better than expected jobs report which, of course, makes it less likely that the FOMC will cut rates any time soon.

But, the more entertaining story is the Trump vs Musk cage fight. Regardless of how it turns out for either, it clearly makes getting Trump’s budget busting bill passed much more difficult.

continued for members…

Nothing has really changed all that much since yesterday’s charts.  Although SPX has already retrace88.6 of its lowwes, ES has not – raising the possibility of an intraday or after-hours push to ES 6075. Much will depend on whether or not VIX breaks down, as it has been threatening to do for several weeks. The strong employment numbers drove interest rates higher, meaning dollar strength.

CL and RB are also higher, further boosting the 10Y. The 2Y is also higher, topping 4% and bringing the 2s10s down to 43 bps. It’s a slight breakdown of the small rising purple channel, which would typically instigate a correction.

It’s important that TSLA remains above the TL from the 2019 lows. It’s currently around 240 and passes through the .500 Fib at 250 in July. If this TL breaks down, then the purple TL runs through the .618 Fib at 193.91 in October.

Stay tuned…