It’s getting downright silly again.  I get the whole recovery from Brexit, as though it never happened and doesn’t matter.  And, I get the whole spike to above the 1.618 extension.  But, now they won’t even allow a 6-8 point decline, in order to maintain the appearance of normalcy for the rising channel they fabricated.  Who’s running this circus, anyway?  Probably the same guy who’s been in charge of USDJPY for the past week. Recall that it broke down, then recovered a bit in a channel that paralleled the broken one, then rejoined the broken one, only to break down again this morning in a show of bearish potential.  To quote Joe Bob, it’s ugly on a stick.

continued for members…

I think ES is happy to be driven by CL right now, so would look for it to run up and tag the red midline (2081ish) before “dipping” to the channel bottom — now at a higher low, of course.  This means SPX’s next dip to the SMA5 200 will likely be at a higher low than yesterday’s 2177.85 and probably won’t occur right away.

CL just popped through the SMA20 as though it didn’t exist — no big surprise.  Though it could run into resistance at 43.40-43.70 (a potential new channel’s .236 line), the upside target is 46.30 by Thursday.  We have a nice, well-defined rising red channel with which to tell if things go off track.

I continue to have issues posting charts and with the membership logins following the migration of the site last week. I’m going to take the day and see if I can’t get the glitches affecting the website fixed for good. Thanks for your patience as I work to get things humming again as quickly as possible.

UPDATE:  10:04 AM

CL is backing off its earlier ramp job.  Combined with USDJPY’s decline, this should accommodate the dip to the red channel bottom and our 2178ish target.  Traders should take advantage of the dip and subsequent rebound.  Keep an eye on CL in case this is a head fake.  A pop back above the SMA20 at 43.18 would short-circuit any decline and would produce new highs yet again.UPDATE:  12:38 PM

Apparent downside targets for SPX (2180.50) and ES (2175.75)…

There ‘s a good chance that today’s decline will extend over the rest of the week to at least the SMA10 or 20 at 2167-2169, which would tag the rising purple channel midline, or even the bottom of the rising purple channel at around 2155.

I base that largely on VIX, which has reached the bottom of a longstanding rising channel (below, in red) and USDJPY, which I believe is destined for at least the bottom of the small white channel and quite likely the purple target down at 100.

Of course, if VIX drops further or CL suddenly springs to life, then all bets are off.  But, that’s the way it appears to me right now.

UPDATE:  1:55 PM

There’s the red channel bottom tag.  CL is bouncing, but hasn’t regained the red channel just yet.  I’d be long here, but cautiously so in case CL can’t make it back above the red channel bottom.

UPDATE:  11:29 AM

As suspected, the red channel seems to be breaking down.  I’d go back to short here.  Initial target is 2175, followed by the purple midline around 2170.UPDATE:  3:43 PM

Another VIX bash has SPX poking up beyond the SMA5 200 and ES back in the rising red channel.  This feels like a headfake to me, so I’d stay short if you can handle the overnight risk or hedge.  I don’t think they deliberately drove SPX below the channel bottom just to have it rebound.