No one laid a glove on Powell during his House testimony yesterday. His assertions regarding inflation and economic growth went largely unchallenged. In fact, 10Y yields are off this morning, testing 1.32 moments ago.Can he continue to fool most of the people most of the time? It’s worked out pretty well so far, with plenty of investors willing to ignore the inevitable outcome of the inflationary path we’re on.

continued for members…

The big picture for equities continues to be precarious.  SPX is still pinned to the top of its rising yellow channel and its SMA200 is fast approaching its 3.618 Fib for what would be a worthy backtest target. The question is “when?”

This would result in a new, less aggressive channel shown in purple below.The ES version:

As before, there are a few warning signals that spell potential trouble for stocks. VIX is very close to putting in a bullish (bearish for stocks) 10/20 cross.  Though the SMA200 and falling white channel top at around 22 could put a quick end to any equity bearishness. A breakout, on the other hand, would be strongly bearish for stocks.

CL continues to be on the brink of a breakdown… …and USDJPY has broken down but is just bouncing in a backtest… …while DXY is still on the rise. Gold and silver continue to go nowhere. GC tried to break out above its SMA200 yesterday but pulled right back down. It’s been over a week since its golden cross, and still not much in terms of follow through. I can’t get bullish on it again until it breaks through the SMA200.Silver is still boxed in, not yet willing to break out or down.I still believe the 10Y will dip a little lower, with that gap down at 1.202%. This would send ZN up a little higher with the potential for a breakout. A reversal at the channel top would be a headwind for GC.

And, BTC continues to probe lower toward our 23,600-24,700 target range currently positioned around Sep 28, 2021.

stay tuned..