Futures are modestly higher as we approach the open and an FOMC decision which will hopefully shed light on the Fed’s thoughts about the economy.

continued for members…

Today should be the primary factor in whether we have lower lows ahead, or not. Our view is that the FOMC will punt, making no changes to interest rates and continuing to insist that there’s nothing to do at this point but continue to watch the data.

If so, then attention turns to the dot plots which would presumably reveal whether FOMC members see inflation remaining elevated or even rising due to tariffs.

Note that SPX and ES are back below their SMA10s.

VX and VIX are still above their channel tops – bearish for stocks – and their RSIs are well supported. Currencies are still very quiet.

And CL and RB are flat – as is the 10Y.

Stay tuned…