Waiting for Fed members to issue their big per nostram culpam?  Don’t hold your breath. While they might acknowledge that inflation is way too high, interest rates are way too low, and the balance sheet is much too large, they’ll likely continue to blame supply chain imbalances due to the pandemic.

It matters from the standpoint of a cure. Supply chain matters can’t be resolved via monetary policy, while excessive liquidity most surely can. Whether they’ll have the stomach for doing so is another matter – especially once markets start to really tumble.

Futures are off modestly.

continued for members…

The equity picture:

USDJPY is trying, but it can’t offset the tumble in EURUSD. GC and SI are edging slightly lower toward our targets. While BTC’s decline continues.CL and RB have finally broken through their TLs from early December, opening the door to moving average backtests. The 10Y, meanwhile, has slipped slightly above the yellow channel top and .786. I’ve posted about this every day because it’s so important. It has the potential to really upset the markets. UPDATE: 3:15 PM

Just heard someone on CNBC say this intraday rally is because all the rate hikes are baked in.  Ridiculous, of course. The actual reason is because at 12:50, as ES’ little white channel was breaking down, someone hammered VIX. Period, end of story.

Note that SPX has closed its gap…