The pieces are falling into place for a downturn.  We begin with USDJPY, which popped above its SMA200 but failed to make a new cycle high in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC decision. It’s on its way to our 107.88 target.

But, if the latest rising channel breaks down, there is much greater downside potential.  Note that the BoJ declined to follow the Fed’s lead last night and is standing pat on rates.

Thanks to corroborating price action on CL and VIX, which completes the bears’ hat trick, futures are already off about 10 points.continued for members…

CL and RB are tumbling, helped by big inventory builds yesterday from the EIA. VIX has, so far, respected the red TL.

As expected, the 10Y is recovering its recent losses and the 2s10s is threatening another breakdown — a bearish sign — even as the 2Y is also threatening a bearish breakdown. Some of the more interesting downside targets for ES and SPX…

The original falling white channel for SPX was a very good fit until the breakout in June.  I have since redrawn it as shown below.

More later.

UPDATE:  1:42 PM

So far, so good.  SPX bounced off a TL from last week’s lows, but should break below to tag the SMA10.  It’s a little more obvious on ES where the SMA10 intersects with the bottom of the rising red channel at 3016.55.VIX hasn’t made much progress, is lingering just above its SMA10. USDJPY has reached initial support, and could get a bounce here too. CL has reached its initial TL of support and bounced up to its SMA20 where it is running into overhead resistance.  RB’s chart remains less logical.  Though, the fact remains that Trump won’t get the Fed to lower rates any more unless inflation remains subdued or falls further – requiring lower gasoline prices.Bonus chart — AAPL, which “broke out” of its rising purple channel on Oct 14, ran into a backtest of its rising white channel.  This is the same kind of backtest which stopped the rally on May 1, though that one was also the top of the purple channel.  Bottom line, I don’t think AAPL will rejoin the white channel any time soon, but it might only fall so far as a backtest of the purple channel top – currently around 228.  This would be an 8% drop from current prices, so it would fit nicely with the SPX decline I’m expecting over the next week or so. Note that a TL connecting its daily RSI suggests a significant reversal, so I’d short it here and not go long unless yesterday’s highs are taken out.  And, I’d be prepared to cover the short unless it drops through the top of the purple channel again.

More after the close.