Following the blowout midterm victory for Democrats, it’s hard to overstate how much everything will change in the global economy, the geopolitical scene, and the markets. The question is “when?”

That particular question will depend on whether Trump reads the room and goes quietly, or throws a fit and obstructs the many changes that lie ahead. Personally, I expect him to step down at some point, probably very soon, for health reasons. Stepping aside might permit a Nixonesque negotiated avoidance of impeachment – though the disgorgement of ill-gotten gains would be a sticky issue.

It would be wise for the Democrats to avoid pissing off Trump’s considerable base, as their own approval rate is nothing to write home about. And, they have botched plenty of elections over the past few cycles. Perhaps they’ll be satisfied with impeaching Hegseth and a few other cabinet members.

In any case, there are substantial changes afoot following the midterms. Perhaps the biggest potential change is the war on Iran. Though the Democrats have denounced the war, they don’t have the power to end it. The June resolution directing Trump to withdraw is symbolic and doesn’t bind Trump to cease action.  They can, however, end any additional funding.

The White House has asked for $88 billion in supplemental funding, which has been stalled and will likely be killed while the war remains unauthorized by Congress. If America’s depleted weapons stockpiles can’t be replenished, things will grind to a halt PDQ.  This is the Dems’ strongest lever.

A funding cutoff like in 1973 could easily be passed by Congress, but would only survive a threatened veto if attached to must-pass legislation to avoid a shutdown.  And the Pentagon is already the recipient of $840 billion courtesy of the 2026 Defense Appropriations Act and has north of $100 billion already on hand.

continuing…