The midterms are finally here. Futures are slightly higher, but the calm is unlikely to last.

About the only potential bright spot in the equity markets is COMP, which has nearly reached our target at the confluence of its SMA200 and the TL from Apr 2025.

While markets almost always rally after midterms, the current technical picture is decidedly bearish. And, the factors that have propped up stocks for the past two years are under assault.

Oil prices are one obvious pressure point. While CL has not yet made new highs, it seems likely that the Iran war will ramp up again. Since it broke out on Sep 1, CL has managed to withstand repeated attacks, refusing to break down.

This has ensured the 10Y’s continuing rise…

…though RB is currently showing some weakness.

continuing…