The economic data would probably be weak enough to spur the Fed into a rate cut…if it weren’t for Trump’s ridiculous tariffs. So, Trump can tweet all he wants about rate cuts. It just ain’t gonna happen until the threat of much higher inflation abates.
ADP employment came in at a surprising 37k versus 115k consensus and 62k prior. Mortgage applications were down 3.9% versus -1.2% prior. ISM services are due out at 10am ET, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm ET. Remember that ISM manufacturing has declined every month since Trump took office.
continued for members…
If it weren’t for VIX’s manipulation, the market would be off significantly.
ES and SPX remain at a level where they could easily break out.
And, VIX is obviously at a point where it could break down instead of bouncing.
The USD continues to falter.
And will probably continue to do so, especially if the 10Y more visibly breaks down.
