Futures are flat as interest rates and credit risk continue to buffet currency pairs. Unlike the PIIGS crisis of 2008-2009, the FROGS (French Oversized Government and Social Security) crisis of 2026 threatens the EU’s second largest and the world’s ninth largest economy. France’s yield premium over German bonds recently reached 152 bps, the highest since 2011.

Bond investors are using the “R” word amidst a very troubling macroeconomic backdrop.