Credit Default Swaps Hint at the Next Casualty

Short term US Government credit default swaps have more than tripled since April.  If this were solely the result of debt ceiling debate, I wouldn’t be so worried.

I suspect it has more to do with the fact that US debt is forecast to exceed 155% of GDP by 2035 (see the report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, or read about it here.)  Even though the Peterson Institute’s solution is gutting Social Security and Medicare, I imagine their prediction is accurate.

Can’t be, you say?  Those numbers are worse than Greece (102%) and Ireland (112%)!!! 

Okay, I admit I shaded the truth a bit.  Those are the best case data.  The Peterson folks suggest the debt might actually climb to over 300% of GDP.

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