When the preliminary 46.3 print for the U-Mich Current Economic Conditions Index was released a couple of weeks ago, it was the lowest ever in the 75-year history of the index. Yes, even lower than during the Great Financial Crisis, the COVID pandemic, or May 1980, when inflation soared to 14.4% and Prime reached 19.5%.

That print was a stark drop from the 65.0 print when Trump was elected in November 2024. In 30 minutes, we’ll get the final print. With the midterms only 11 days away, it could matter as much as it ever has before.

Meanwhile, futures are dropping again after yesterday’s ugly equity performance.

Oil prices continue to firm, and are likely to reach our upside target from months ago if the reports are true about a sharp escalation in the Iran war following the midterms.

Anyone who’s unhappy about current high gasoline prices should be thinking about the cost of filling the tank at over $6/gallon (as it already is in California.)

continuing…