Not much consolidation after yesterday’s Hilsen-rally. So, I’d look for a backtest of the SMA10/20’s on any pullback. Otherwise, SPX never reached the .786 or .886 yeaterday. Those would have to be the immediate upside targets.
The SMA50 looks miles away, now. But, as the talking heads have pointed out, anything can happen on FOMC day.
UPDATE: 12:45 PM
We’ve seen general weakness following the early session ramp job. Here’s a quick look at support and resistance.
continued for members...
Most past FOMC-related sell-offs go to a certain point, then the algos kick in — driving prices higher into the close on the back of VIX smashing or USDJPY ramping.
The purple channel midline provides a floor of sorts, but previous moves have come in a point or 2 higher/lower. So, I would consider the SMA10 and SMA20 still in play if there’s any initial sell-off. A deeper sell-off would bring the white midline, purple .236 channel line and .618 retrace (of the move from 1978 to 2004) into play at 1988ish.
If things were to get really ugly, then the SMA50 could still make an appearance. But, it would take a much steeper decline than we’ve seen thus far — a breakdown of the falling wedge.




