Futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision and a hot retail sales print.

Lisa Cook remains a voting FOMC member, while CEA head Stephen Miran was rushed through Congressional approval in order to counter her vote.

Meanwhile, the list of prospective Fed chairmen continues to expand. The way onto the list is simply to profess a desire for large rate cuts, thus increasing the ranks of those supporting Trump’s wishes.

He has done a good job of delaying tariffs just to dampen their impact on inflation. And, the recent huge employment revision (blamed on Biden) has subtly shifted the FOMC’s emphasis toward jobs. A 25 bps rate cut is therefore fairly certain, with some calling for a 50 bps cut.

FWIW, we continue to see an elevated risk of inflation, particularly as the beneficial base effect of oil/gas prices unwinds. Don’t be surprised if the FOMC dot plot reflects a wide dispersion of viewpoints and the vote is anything but unanimous.

continued for members…

Markets are little changed from yesterday aside from the continuing equity meltup. Channel lines and Fibs still represent significant overhead resistance.

EURUSD is threatening new highs……which has pushed DXY down to retest its channel bottom.Meanwhile, CL and RB are bouncing a bit.

But, it’s not enough to get a rise out of the 10Y.