After a reasonably clean backtest of its January highs, ES has broken trend and is back below that benchmark as well as its SMA20.  Currently in the red by 11 points, SPX is indicated as opening below its January highs (2872.87.)  So, either we get some algo heroics in the next hour or the market will be in for some trouble in the session ahead.

Without question we face some important tests today — starting with TNX, which is back to the top of its triangle.  It has now been over seven months since it reached our 28.56 target.continued for members…

VIX is still hinting at a tag of 16.03, but it’s far from certain.  If TPTB wish to protect SPX 2872 — which I believe they do — it’ll test 13.29 or lower.

The dollar is still rallying against the JPY and very slightly against the EUR. Still waiting for CL and RB to make their move…  Note that they’ve been rallying intrasession for prop purposes, but not really making any headway for the past week.  CL seems likely to continue higher for now.While, by pushing back above its SMA200, RB is telling us the next leg down will have to wait. Bottom line, ES is looking sketchy.  But, a sudden downdraft of a few percent by VIX would take care of that. The SPX target below 2872.87 is around 2863.50 — the red TL (dotted below) which marked the Jun 28, Jul2, and Aug 15 lows. UPDATE:  12:10 PM

SPX bounced at 2866.78, a little higher than expected.  Moments ago, it reached yesterday’s upside target — the SMA10 at 2892.31.  Interestingly, VIX reached only 13.37, not quite to our downside target of 13.29.  Since SPX’s SMA10 is rapidly approaching, I’d imagine SPX will top its SMA10 and VIX will go ahead and drop at least a little more. UPDATE: 12:55 PM

As SPX tries to poke through its SMA10, we’re seeing RB and CL make pretty strong moves.  No new lows at this time.  FWIW, the EIA has revised its outlook for 2019, and it’s slightly less negative. VIX still has additional room to the downside.

UPDATE:  2:30 PM

VIX is about to tag our 13.29 target – not a bad place to take profits or at least consider tightening up stops.  But, I think it is likely to drop lower, with the yellow channel bottom the most reliable target.  Note that SPX still hasn’t punched through its SMA10.

UPDATE:  3:15 PM

Just to make it official…

Note that USDJPY is also in position to help SPX with its SMA10.  Breakout, anyone?

I need to run out for a meeting and won’t likely be back until after the close.  GLTA.