Nice reversal yesterday — just when it seemed SPX was impervious to downside pressure. There’s a good chance we’ll see some follow through today. But, even as I type this, they just ramped USDJPY/NKD and ES seems to be responding.
The key will be whether ES can remain below the SMA10 at 1872.50. In an unrigged market, we’d push through the SMA20 and 50 (1863 & 1859) and be down 35 points today with more to come. These days, who knows? In any case, here’s my best downside scenario.
continued for members…
The big picture shows the TL coming up from 2009 in yellow. It potentially intersects with the SMA 200 at the grey .618 at 1789 in late June. But, a more vigorous decline to the white 1.618 at 1752 — just below the SMA200 — is theoretically possible.
Zooming in…
And, the close-up:
