Charts I’m Watching: May 22, 2017

Futures are up about 4 points on another CL ramp and VIX dump this morning.  Meanwhile, EURUSD and DX have both tagged our targets from earlier in the month.

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SPX was turned back at the yellow channel bottom last Friday.  Topping it remains the number one priority.

ES is in a similar position.  As mentioned above, CL continues to push higher.  While DX is nearly to our 96.789 target.USDJPY hasn’t made its move yet — perhaps waiting in order to cast it as a backtest of a broken channel.Note that VIX has pushed down below its white channel bottom again, and has very little support below the SMA10 at 11.66.I’ve set SPX’s target at the .886 at 2399.72, though obviously TPTB have their sights set on new highs.  We could get a reversal at the .786, as there hasn’t been much of one leading up to this point.  But, the .886 corresponds to the IH&S target and fits nicely in the rising purple channel.

UPDATE:  10:36 AM

SPX just backtested the SMA20 at 2388.42.  The SMA5 20 is fast approaching, and by my placement the yellow channel top is also being backtested.  VIX’s bounce off the yellow channel bottom allowed the backtest to occur.  Not, we’ll need to see VIX reverse off its targ of the SMA10. CL continues to hold its earlier highs — not really going anywhere but not breaking down, either.I suspect we’ll get a continued meltup once this support level is backtested and successfully defended.  Note that ES has a little more to go if it’s going to actually backtest hte SMA10 or 20.  So, I wouldn’t get too wigged out if SPX dips below its SMA20 for a few.  The bigger risk is from USDJPY breaking down.  But, I suspect they’ll save the worst of it until after the close.

The rest of the week involves plenty of important economic data as well as FOMC minutes, an OPEC summit and plenty of Fed speakers.  So, today should remain fairly quiet as long as ES remains above 2385ish and SPX above 2386 or so.I’m going to sign off for now, as I have a couple of conference calls and lots of charts to catch up on.  I’ll check back in if anything worrisome occurs.

UPDATE:  10:57 AM

ES has backtested its SMA10 and 20. UPDATE:  2:05 PM

Quick update on currencies… DX reached 96.797 versus our 96.789 target.  EURUSD topped the Fib at 1.1189 but tagged the top of the purple channel top — an even better reversal point.  I believe USDJPY is waiting for the both of them to reverse before it dives down to at least 109.81.  The falling EURUSD (strengthening USD) should offset the falling USDJPY (weakening USD.) This should all unfold in the next 24 hours.