Charts I’m Watching: Mar 4, 2014

“Just kidding,” says Vlad the Impaler.  Apparently, the Russians love their markets too.  The eminis have already forgiven and forgotten.

Will the currencies?  We’re back to watching 102 on USDJPY.

The bounce at the purple .786 we discussed yesterday is pretty much exactly the same as at the .618.  If the falling red channel fails, the intersection of the red TL and white channel top (at the red .618: 102.10ish) looks like the next resistance.  102.20 would be a .618 retrace from the Feb 21 highs.

BOJ’s Kuroda commented on the yen carry trade yesterday in testimony before a parliamentary committee (WSJ article.)  The pair has failed to make any progress since the BOJ switched gears two weeks ago, focusing on promoting lending rather than simply pumping more yen into the system via bond purchases (marketwatch article.)

Similarly, the Dow has failed to reach even the .886 retracement of its drop from Dec 31 to Feb 5.  Today, it’s backtesting the purple acceleration channel at the .886 retrace of yesterday’s plunge — no doubt an important decision point.

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