SPX is wrapping up the first quarter with a loss of around 7% (-10% from Jan highs) and a 1% VIX-inspired ramp job. It’s the first quarterly loss since Q1 2025 and fairly mild considering the global macroeconomic picture.

Energy prices are a challenge not seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022, when WTI hit 130 and inflation hit 8.5% on its way to 9.1%. The 10Y went from below 2% to 5%.

March inflation, due out Apr 10, should easily top 3.25% and have a shot at 4%.

Unless gas prices come back down quickly, we could see a repeat of 2022 when the 10Y broke out of a large falling channel dating back t0 2000.  It is still broken out and oscillating higher.