CL is selling off and the yen is strengthening this morning following the despicable terrorist attacks in Brussels.  ES dropped as low as 2028.75 and is currently attempting to maintain a TL off the Mar 10 lows.  But, the long-overdue consolidation has probably arrived.continued for members…

Look for SPX to at least complete the little H&S Pattern we charted yesterday (2034ish) and more likely backtest the purple channel midline at 2030-32.  If that should fail, the next major support is the SMA200 at 2017.61.  The signal will be breaking down below the red rising wedge bottom around 2042.50.UPDATE:  9:34 AM

They’re trying to prop it up here at the rising wedge bottom with — what else? — a quick CL ramp. Here’s a less muddled, slightly more bullish way of looking at USDJPY.  If they put a floor under it with this channel, then today’s ultimate drop will depend largely on CL.UPDATE:  9:54 AM

At the moment, CL is spiking higher – dragging SPX with it.  This wouldn’t be a bad place to step aside, defensively.  Though, it’ll likely turn at the dropping SMA5 10 at around 2046ish. UPDATE:  10:03 AM

Just tagged the SMA5 200 at 2047. I’d revert to short here, though watch USDJPY – which is threatening to break out – and CL, which has climbed out of the falling wedge and also threatening to break out. Disregard my earlier comment on home sales and crude.  Those are due tomorrow.

UPDATE:  10:27 AM

USDJPY is bottoming and CL is rallying, forcing ES and SPX higher.  Ditching the short position here.

This is the very same pattern we’re seeing all too often — sudden spikes in CL that thwart reverse any meaningful SPX drops.

There’s a decent chance that this is a head fake, as ES could still reverse at the SMA5 200.UPDATE:  11:57 AM

SPX has fallen back below the purple TL, but is still above the TL support it fell below this morning.  CL has lost the white TL support, but could be backtesting the red.  In other words, it’s in a prime position to halt SPX’s decline if it so chooses. USDJPY continues to track higher, but will likely run into its SMA5 200 in the next few minutes.If SPX and CL drop through their red TLs, I’d short again for 2030-2032.  Otherwise, I’d stay on the sidelines.

UPDATE:  1:00 PM

SPX just shot through its previous high (and the white .786) on USDJPY strength.  It should settle back here, as USDJPY and ES have both run into overhead resistance.  Shorting here for 2053 or the SMA5 10 catch-up.  Though, if USDJPY pops through, I’d go back to long. UPDATE: 1:46 PM

SMA5 20 tag – or, at least close to it.USDJPY has pushed on up to the top of the red channel.  If it reverses here, then short still makes sense.  If it doesn’t then SPX is likely to continue down to 2051ish at the most (until CL starts spiking higher again.)UPDATE:  2:17 PM

Finally getting a little movement.  In response to the question below, 2051.06 is a possible downside target that would allow SPX to sell off a little without breaking the red TL again.UPDATE:  2:30 PM

CL sparking back to life to tag the white TL.  Will it pop through?  USDJPY pushing up over the red channel top.  It’s time to switch to long with tight stops in case this is a head fake. NKD is gapping higher, breaking an overhead TL.UPDATE:  2:45 PM

It appears they don’t really want a strong gain on the day.  I suppose it would be hard to explain headlines such as “Stock Market Soars as Brussels Under Siege.”  Since USDJPY is reversing off the channel top, there’s a good possibility that SPX is going to work its way lower, perhaps to a slight gain around 2053-2053.  I’d go back to cash here and see if SPX can spike higher at 3:00. UPDATE:  12:06 PM

I’ll take a shot at a rebound here in the final hour.UPDATE:  3:15 PM

Well, the forecast was correct — just traded it poorly.  Cashing out here for the day.  Though, I’d go short if it drops through the SMA200. UPDATE:  3:17 PM

Dropping through the SMA5 200, so I seems like it’d be a good short.  But, NKD has backtested a fan line, ES testing SMA5 200 support, and CL is still above the white TL.  I’ll try a long position with tight stops instead.  I also moved the red rising wedge bottom to accommodate this morning’s lows. UPDATE:  3:36 PM

Nothing’s moving — which probably means this will be it.  Back to cash.