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USDJPY has either completed its run or has formed a flag pattern that signals higher.

ES had a nice move yesterday, but needs to move south of the rising white channel in order to confirm our downside case.  In the absence of a move lower, we should get a retrace of the 1823 lows, ideally to the purple .786 at 1832.92.

UPDATE:  12:20 PM

We’ve retraced .786 of yesterday’s plunge, a reasonable place for a reversal and retest of the downside.  The .886 at 1864.59, however, would provide another tag of the purple channel top.

Note the divergence with USDJPY.