Friday saw SPX come within 2 points of our next downside target [added on May 29] before the algos kicked in. 
From Friday’s post Bad Good News:
Assuming (as we do) that USDJPY runs out of steam at 125.72 and CL bounces back at 57.09 or so and TNX tops out at 24.38, SPX should have little trouble tagging our next downside target at 2082ish, with an overshoot a distinct possibility.
USDJPY ran out of steam at 125.67, CL bottomed at 56.83, and TNX topped out at 24.24. So, everything went pretty much according to play, except for the timing and strength of CL’s bounce: 4.2% in a day!
That’s the trouble with market manipulation: some participants either don’t get the memo, or don’t feel like waiting for the signal.
It’s selling off this morning, leaving us to wonder whether the downside is really over for now.
continued for members…
Hard to say, as the eminis did reach their .618 retrace from earlier in the month.
And, DX is selling off this morning — even as CL is showing weakness.
But, USDJPY is finally reversing at the 1.618 — our next upside target. 
So, my best guess is that TPTB would like a more solid touch of the rising channels/TLs on SPX, and that we’ll see SPX bag 2083 before it’s all over.
UPDATE: 10:00 AM
Quick update of the daily charts. First, note that the SMA10 (red) has crossed the SMA20 (white) — almost always at least a short-term bearish development. But, it’s happened many times before and still, the SMA100 (yellow) provided strong support.
Now that the SMA200 (thick red line) has climbed above the March lows, I think there’s a decent chance of SPX reaching it. As we’ve noted before, a reversal at the red .786 would set up a drop to the red 1.272 at 2049.76 — which is exactly where the SMA200 should be in the next week or so. It also happens to coincide with the peach .886.
So, we’ll make 2050 our next major downside target for now. Note, from the bigger chart, that there is much more potential downside should support not hold.
To get to 2050 would require a break in TL/channel support. So, I hesitate to consider it “likely.” For now, we’ll just call it a likely target should the support at the SMA100 not hold. Here’s the updated daily chart:
I still believe the USDJPY will backtest the yellow .618 at 120.11 about the time its SMA200 reaches that price level. For now, it appears to intersect in late July. Our analog calls for a tag on Jul 29 — hence the yellow target.
For USDJPY to fall that far would surely ding stocks pretty much. So, a drop to SPX 2050 might not be all that farfetched. I’ll try to get some updated charts for our analog posted this afternoon.
Note: having seen countless instances of full recoveries and new highs after the SMA100 tag, I’d also be very open to the idea of SPX hanging on to the purple channel whose bottom it just tagged.
While I’d like to think the SMA200 could get tagged, TPTB have proven quite adept at pushing SPX up through resistance. With a Greece “fix”, another BOJ expansion, etc. anything is possible.
UPDATE: 1:15 PM
SPX has tagged the SMA100, reaching 2081.92. If our mid-term forecast is correct, we should see a strong rebound very soon. Initial target 2091 with a secondary target of 2100. Certainly worth a shot…
UPDATE: 2:39 PM
The memo: http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-creditors-consider-extending-eurozone-bailout-until-march-1433788055
BRUSSELS—Greece’s international creditors have suggested extending the country’s bailout program until the end of March 2016, but disagreements over the conditions attached to the continued support and what would happen afterward risk undermining that plan, three people familiar with the negotiations said Monday.
The eurozone’s portion of Greece’s €245 billion ($272 billion) rescue program runs out at the end of June, which has raised questions over how Athens will pay its debt beyond this month and remain in Europe’s currency union. To ensure that Greece doesn’t run out of money until the end of March, it would get access to some €10.9 billion that had been set aside under its old bailout for recapitalizing weak banks, the people said.
“What we offered would mean that Greece is fully financed until March 2016,” said one person, referring to a meeting last week between European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who represents eurozone governments in the talks.
At that meeting, Messrs. Juncker and Dijsselbloem offered the extension and the extra funding in return for Greece implementing policy overhauls as well as pension cuts and tax increases, the people said. But Mr. Tsipras rejected those terms as “unacceptable.”
Failure to reach a deal on the conditions attached to new aid now risks undermining the deal offered at Wednesday’s meeting, one of the people said. “Every additional day of capital outflows [from Greece’s banks] means less money can be taken from the [bank recapitalization fund and used to repay debt] and instead has to be used to stabilize the banks,” this person said.
Another factor holding up a deal is what would happen after March. One of the people said that Greece insists it doesn’t want a third bailout program—which many creditor representatives believe is necessary—and doesn’t want to follow spending conditions laid out by its creditors beyond March.