Futures are flat as we wrap the 2nd quarter. I’m not sure there’s a better descriptor than “irrational exuberance.”  But, we’ll find out if, as I expect, we begin to backtest some of the previous tops and SMA200s over the next week or two.

Oil continues to be a wildcard. And, my position has not changed. I cannot see Iran giving Trump any kind of win (though he will certainly continue to claim one) between now and the mid-terms.

While the 10Y has been greatly affected by falling oil prices, the next leg lower (to 4.235% by Jul 22) is more likely to be driven by an equity selloff.

Meanwhile, the USJDPY is inching up on our 167.25 target…

…as EURUSD backtests before heading to 1.09-1.12…

…and DXY breaks out more convincingly, with 104.2 the next significant resistance.

Stay tuned. It’s about to get really interesting…