Equities are up slightly on the last trading day of Q2.

continued for members…

Apologies for the delay this morning – computer problems crept up at the last second.

Our charts get very simplified with new highs, eliminating all downside Fib patterns until there’s another top is established. While there’s a decent chance of this being a double top due to SPX being overbought, the more likely scenario is that SPX reaches at least the 1.272 at 6500ish.

Can something derail the market? Of course. If so, there is downside support at the former high of 6147 and the rising SMA200, currently at 5833 but more likely when it emerges from the falling white channel at 5900ish.

Interestingly, the DJIA is in the bear camp, showing a slight reversal at its .886 retracement.

Note that although VIX broke down, allowing SPX to make new highs, it is back above the rising white channel bottom – a gain of 6.5% at this moment.  Note that VIX’s RSI is also holding support.

Currency pairs have all reached our targets, with little indication one way or the other as to next steps. Weak economic data and higher expected inflation continue to suggest dollar weakness, though chart patterns suggest a rebound for DXY.

Meanwhile, CL and RB are still on the cusp of either a rebound or a breakdown. The longer they remain under pressure, the better the odds of the 10Y reaching our 3.61 target.

continuing…