ES reached our 50-day moving average downside target from two weeks ago a little ahead of schedule.

continued for members…

Our expectation is that the rising white channel will continue to hold, but any move below the SMA50 by either ES or SPX would be a sign that the bears have the upper hand. Naturally, VIX played an important role. But, also note that CL is still threatening to break down following the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. This would be a positive for inflation and, therefore, stocks.