Futures are up modestly after a stronger than expected jobs report.

continued for members…

ES has reached a purple channel line, better seen in the daily chart below. But, it’s all going to come down to VIX, which is still threatening a breakdown. A bounce would obviously have the opposite effect.

Note that markets close at 1pm ET today and are closed tomorrow. FWIW, the 4th has traditionally been one of those days where markets are ramped higher.

CL ended yesterday with a big gain, up 2.35 off the red TL. It’s giving a bit back today, but between yesterday’s gains and the stronger than expected jobs report, the 10Y has seen a bump up beyond its SMA200. This could be a vigorous backtest that settles back down, but fit’s worth keeping an eye on as it argues against our 41.41 target later in the month.

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Just a reminder for those who didn’t see the note the other day, I will be on vacation for the rest of the month of July. I’ll post once per week unless something unexpected occurs.