Charts I’m Watching: Jul 22, 2024

Futures are up sharply as traders digest the seismic changes to the race for the White House.

By any measure, the next Democratic candidate will likely have better odds to win the presidency than did Joe Biden. Kamala Harris is being touted as the likely nominee, and she is considered more pro-business than Biden.

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As a result, we should see some weakening in the “Trump trade.” ES is testing the SMA20…

…while VIX is continuing its retreat, likely on its way to single digits.

And, the DXY is showing some strength – backtesting its SMA200 for the third time. Will this one be a charm? Oil and gas are off sharply… …taking some pressure off the 10Y. Interestingly, both the 10Y and the 10Y have bounced. But, while the 10Y is backtesting a broken TL, the 2Y is bouncing at TL support. This has the potential to reverse the 2s10s recent bump and keep it inverted a little longer.

Stay tuned…