As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

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Stocks continue to be propped up at the previous highs, as seen on ES’ 15-min chart below.

continued for members…

It makes for a pretty nonsensical market, where economics, earnings, etc. are ignored. But, it also makes investing feel a little less scary – at least until the next screw-the-pooch moment.

There continues to be at least a 50-50 chance of SPX backtesting its former highs, especially now that the SMA20 is above 6147. As has been the case for the past several weeks, VIX continues to cue the algos……with a recent brief breakdown in VIX futures especially insistent.We could see some reversals in currency pairs now that EURUSD and DXY have reached channel lines.

CL and RB continue to coil, not quite breaking out but not breaking down either.

It’s enough that, combined with recent strong retail prices, the 10Y is being pressured higher. The most recent data shows that tariff price increases are starting to work their way into the system.

Stay tuned…