Charts I’m Watching: Jul 11, 2016

The last time SPX was in a position to make new highs, it fell 125 points instead.  If fact, it’s tested the May 2015 highs six times since then.  Any of those days, it was within a good ramp job of shooting up past 2134.  Is this one any different?

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First, note that SPX has successfully backtested the falling yellow channel (though it probably dipped a little lower than they had planned.)  It has also broken out of the falling purple channel. 2016-07-11 SPX daily 0846 It did this once before, but Brexit knocked it back down quite a bit.  It has now completed an IH&S Pattern within the right shoulder of a much larger IH&S Pattern targeting 2422.

2016-07-11 SPX daily CU 0547And, it broke out of the small, falling white channel — busting the bearish Harmonic grid that had provided a path lower.

2016-07-11 SPX 60 0547In short, there are no chart patterns or harmonics standing in the way of new all-time highs — which is what you would expect when central bankers are gearing up for more stimulative action and when the global Stimulator in Chief (Abe) was reelected in a landslide.

About the only resistance is the actual 1.618 extension at 2138.04.  It was this Fib level that SPX came up 4 points short of on May 20, 2015.  Technically, we could call the rise back to 2138 a truncated 5th wave and get ready for a huge decline.

But, I imagine TPTB have taken this risk into account and are planning a very big push to make sure it doesn’t happen.  Seen USDJPY this morning?

2016-07-11 USDJPY 5 0903GLTA.