Futures are down slightly after being off nearly 50 overnight.  The relative calm is in contrast to significant moves in currencies and commodities.

If our analog has anything to say about it, this is the proverbial calm before the storm.

continued for members…If SPX is to land around 3350 by the 19th, that would mean around 40 points per day between now and then. Of course, it is quite unlikely to be a steady drop. Past corrections have seen markets alternating between small rallies and huge plunges.

Then there are the head fakes – such as this likely one where VIX’s SMA10 just dipped below the SMA20. by .01. It’s not much, but it’s enough to confuse the algos. Behind the scenes, EURUSD is about to make new lows… …and GC and SI have broken down. …and BTC is paring back its bounce.Oil and gas are up sharply… …which makes the 10Y’s breakdown all the more significant. Stay tuned…