ORIGINAL POST: 5:15 AM EST
USDJPY just confirmed the H&S we were watching. Target = 100.68. There’s good horizontal support for it there, as well as the purple channel .236 line.
The daily chart shows the much lower potential.
UPDATE: 6:15 AM
The Nikkei futures H&S pattern targets 14300 near the purple channel bottom.
BTW, for those who were looking at the transports’ divergence as a silver lining — I hate to break it to you. DTX just completed a large Crab Pattern that should smack them back significantly.
Dip buyers beware. This will get worse before it gets any better. Art Cashin just said [watch on CNBC] exactly what we’ve been saying since Dec 27: the yen’s strength (and USDJPY decline) represents a flight to safety — as are lower yields.
Right now, everyone’s talking about Argentina and the Ukraine, but watch for the focus to switch to Asia any minute.
Next week is huge from an economic news standpoint. We have the new home sales, durable goods, the FOMC announcement, initial claims, advance GPD, consumer confidence, Michigan sentiment and Chicago PMI. The unemployment report (Wednesday) should be a big boost, as the 1.4 million folks whose benefits Congress just declined to extend will no longer be counted. The unemployment rate should plunge.
Coming up, downside targets.
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