Charts I’m Watching: Feb 3, 2015

Greece.  The confusion continues.  But, it hasn’t stopped the USDJPY-driven algos from boosting S&P 500 futures 50 points off yesterday’s lows.

SPX hit our next downside target (yellow dot) on the nose yesterday. This was a TL connecting the Jan 6, 14 and 16 lows as discussed last Friday afternoon.

2015-02-03 SPX 15 0600It then bounced to an appealing upside target — the SMA100 at 2010 — which seemed like a great place to short again (11:39 update.)

It dipped pretty convincingly, shedding 20 points toward the SMA200 until about an hour before the session ended.  At this point, the Greece is fixed rumors heated up and it spurted higher to complete a Bat Pattern at the small white .886.

USDJPY took over at that point, moving back above the red triangle bottom and even the falling purple channel top.  It looks like the SMA200 tag will have to wait a bit longer.

2015-02-03 USDJPY 15 0610

Note that DX has reached the lower bound of the acceleration channel that’s kept it rising since mid-December — usually with positive effects on stocks.

2015-02-03 DX v ES 60 0600At this rate, the SMA10 looks to be tested on the opening.  If USDJPY can break out of the purple channel, there should be additional upside.  If not, the pop should turn into a drop fairly quickly.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

Looks like a good place to sell. Note the white 1.272 is essentially also the larger scale .618.  And, USDJPY has continued to settle after tagging the upper bound mentioned above.

2015-02-03 SPX 15 0634The very latest out of Germany — the soap opera which is the Greece debt negotiations is looking messier and messier:

From Bloomberg:

Volker Kauder, the caucus leader for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic-led bloc in German parliament, calls Greek debt recommendation “half-baked” demands a refrain from new proposals “every day.”
“We’re not going to play this game,” Kauder tells reporters in Berlin ahead of CDU/CSU caucus meeting. “I’m not ready to comment on half-baked plans every day. The fact remains that we have agreements with Greece and not with a government — and these agreements have to be adhered to.”
“Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s new government has a right to make proposals, though must bear consequences”
“The German tax payer mustn’t be held liable for the decisions of this leftist-populist government. It’s up to Greece to decide.”
Troika of ECB, IMF and Commission must remain as negotiating partner with Greece.
“I don’t like the tone of voice out of Athens at all.  That’s not the way to talk to one another in Europe.”
“There are new proposals and new reports coming out of Greece all the time and all of Europe and beyond seems to be holding its breath.”
“A government should first of all reflect, should make concrete proposals and not present something new every day.”
“The new Greek government doesn’t create any trust this way.”

Doesn’t sound terribly “fixed,” does it?

Speaking of the euro mess, note that the EURUSD continues to rebound since our bottom call upon its reaching our 1.12 target 10 days ago [see: Jan 23 update on EURUSD].

2015-02-03 EURUSD daily 0700With JPY going sideways and the euro strengthening, it makes one wonder if that DX channel will hold…

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