Despite numerous head fakes, ES’ H&S Pattern has completed and provides a road map to some important tests of our downside targets.
continued for members…Note that VIX didn’t quite reach its SMA200 yesterday.
It’s IH&S target is north of the SMA200 at 26.75ish.
This suggests to me that we will at least test ES’ red TL and quite likely the bottom of SPX’s red (somewhat lazy) acceleration channel.
Although ES came up well short of its 3.618…
…SPX came pretty darned close – only 6 points away – and we would normally expect a pullback to at least the next lower Fib extension. In this case, that would be the 2.618 at 3047, which happens to be the 1.272 extension of the small white Fib pattern. This implies a bounce at the .786 at 3387, which happens to be in the vicinity of the SMA200.
Note that SPX’s little purple H&S targets the bottom of the channel. If it doesn’t bounce back, it will have broken the purple TL of support from last March (3900ish.)
CL and RB should be done at these levels. For those not already short, CL has backtested its channel from 2016.
It’s easier to see without the early 2020 plunge included.
Here’s an even cleaner version.
RB has overshot its channel top and is overripe for a big downturn.
This is the top of the falling white channel and the .786 line of the falling purple channel.
On the currency front, DXY is treading water…
…as EURUSD stalls at the upper end of its falling red channel – waiting for the SMA200 to get into position…
…and USDJPY gets a bounce (for now, at least) off its rising white channel bottom.
DXY has officially tested its 2016 lows and should retreat as DXY rebounds on EURUSD’s drop.

