The dollar continues to fizzle, but USDJPY is rallying anyway.  CL, RB and VIX are jumping into the fray just in case, helping ES to a 9-pt gain as we go to press.  Maybe Congress will un-pass and re-pass the tax bill a few more times in order to convince the algos to keep the melt-up going.

continued for members…RB has pushed into the cloud, trashing the downside case.  Though, for those willing to ride it out, I believe we’ll still see lower prices in the days ahead — with 1.6305 and 1.60 being the most likely targets if we see a reversal by the falling white channel top.  Remember, this is EIA inventory day — and we normally see a ramp job going into the data release. CL remains elevated.  It shouldn’t last; but, until the TL breaks, don’t fight the trend. The USDJPY is rising, despite the dollar’s troubles vs the euro. VIX is vascillating just enough to guarantee a strong opening for ES — but, as always, watch those stops.

SPX still looks good for 2703 and, if that breaks, 2750ish.Last, note that GC pushed back above the yellow TL — the line in the sand between a long and short position.UPDATE:  2:02 PM

CL is up about .50%, while RB has spiked a whopping 2.36%.  Upon reentering the cloud, RB has little resistance until now — the top of the cloud and the top of the falling white channel.  If it’s going to reverse, this is the spot.CL’s TL resistance is at 58.25-58.37.  It has more overhead and, in the end, has more impact on equity prices. Why?  I mean, gasoline inventories were higher in today’s EIA report, just like in the API.

Here’s one reason:  ES is having one hell of a time holding on to the rising purple channel that it reentered last Friday.  It’s barely in the green, and the momentum seems to be with the bears. It’s especially tough given DXY’s continuing weakness……and, VIX’s unwillingness to help.