Futures are flat on the eve of tomorrow’s CPI print.

continued for members…

Note that ES merely backtested its SMA10.

Though VIX broke above its SMA10 for the first time since Nov 25.USDJPY has finally completed its SMA200 backtest.

CL and RB continue sideways.

And TNX has pushed up slightly through its SMA200 — as did the SMA50. This is a reversal of the death cross which occurred back in July in the midst of the 10Y’s drop from 4.7% to 3.7%.

A reminder: our model suggest that YoY headline CPI will come in higher than last month, perhaps significantly higher.  Although not pictured, Core CPI has been stubbornly too high to suggest additional rate cuts.

Can equities shrug off a pause in the rate cut cycle? Stay tuned.