Futures weren’t able to push through resistance yesterday despite several algo-goosing efforts by the administration.  This leaves an opportunity for one more downturn before Jackson Hole gets rolling.

continued for members…

Note that the red TL and .618 held ES where expected……even though this held SPX to a lesser upside target than the analog originally indicated.  Given that we still have some wiggle room in terms of timing, I won’t declare the bounce officially over.  But, it’s sure looking that way.

SPX relied on VIX to a greater extent than expected — threatening to reenter the broken red channel and dropping below its SMA200 — but, it wasn’t enough to produce the kind of bounce SPX needed.

Looking at the daily chart, though, we can see that although VIX pushed below its SMA200 — a great, bullish algo signal of course — it has so far avoided reentering the red channel.

CL and RB continue in a holding pattern.  I’ve offered some less dramatic upside and downside targets simply because the most recent moves haven’t been very dramatic.  SPX seems very capable of big swings without a lot of input from oil.

On the currency front, USDJPY has stalled at the .618 and IMO is readying another attempt at 104.74 with the 103.19 or 101.23 Fibs on hold for the mid-Sep tumble. DXY, in the meantime, is threatening to break out from the red channel.This would be a significant move, as the corrective red channel has played an important role over the past 4 years.UPDATE:  10:10 AM

SPX is off about 12 points currently — a good start to a low which I suspect will be 2833 late tomorrow. I’ve added a purple dot at 3004 on Aug 30 (versus the analog’s 3014 on Aug 27) only because the algos often ramp into month end.  We’ll see how it plays out, but it should represent a nice opportunity for a short trade.

I have to run out for a quick meeting, will be back a little after noon.

UPDATE: 12:55 PM

Not much happening just yet…I’m adding a couple of interim targets for ES as VIX is threatening (again) to break down and might prevent such a deep retracement.  ES 2844 would be an A=C for the 3010 target at month’s end. More later.

UPDATE:  4:15 PM

SPX closed off 23.14, nearing the SMA100 at 2908.99 and just above the SMA10 at 2900.51.  I suspect we’ll see a second tag of its oversold RSI line before this drop is done.ES closed right at the support of its SMA10. And, VIX closed on a bounce with the SMA200 and channel top below it.