Another ramp job last night, this one courtesy of USDJPY – which is conveniently back above its SMA200.

VIX, which was hammered over 12% off yesterday’s highs, is curiously on the rise.  Could it be that this ramp job isn’t meant to stick?  It’s been a while since we had a nice pop and drop.

continued for members…

SPX is working on completing an Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern at 2350ish.  Note that its SMA10 is at that same level (2350.22.)

It would put the index up at the red .786 at 2367.

CL has been propped up for the past several days rather than let a H&S Pattern play out.  Note that the SMA10 has finally arrived.

No breakout for ES, yet.  It’s pushing up against its SMA10.VIX is back below its SMA10 and has a clear path to the SMA200 (the white dot.)

And, USDJPY is ramping — but not breaking out just yet.

UPDATE:  9:34 AM

There’s the SMA20 and channel tops.  Note that the IH&S has completed, so this is a make or break moment for SPX.  I’d short here at 2351.52 with tight stops.

My apologies for being slow to post this morning.  I’ve been battling a bad cold for the past few days which has left me working at half-speed.  I might take some time off this afternoon and try to get ahead of it.

UPDATE:  9:55 AM

A few minutes before 10AM and everything seems to be on hold — avoiding obvious opportunities to break out.  USDJPY is the only thing that seems interested in making a move.  As most of you know, the first 30 minutes of trading is almost always in the green.  It’s usually what happens after we reach 10AM that sets the tone for the rest of the day.

UPDATE:  10:15 AM

Coming up on the EIA inventory report.  SPX’s SMA5 10 has caught up to it and, wouldn’t you know it, VIX is leaking lower.  This could pop or drop, so keep a close eye on your stops.

UPDATE:  10:31 AM

A draw of 1.0 MM for crude, a build of 1.5 MM for gasoline.  CL is lower on the news, and VIX just tagged the white channel bottom and bounced – but only to the red TL.  SPX is, initially at least, selling off a little.

Interestingly, USDJPY has continued to back off a little.

The unavoidable problem, of course, is that every day of continued strength in oil prices yields more rigs and US production.  I read recently where one US producer felt their breakeven was down to $35/barrel.  At $52+, it’s going to be tough for OPEC to effect any meaningful reductions in supply.

UPDATE:  11:23 AM

Coming up on the euro close, and SPX is still hanging in there.  It got a nice initial drop to 2346.63, but couldn’t even reach the gap close before VIX started propping it up.  Likewise, USDJPY has had a nice bounce from 108.94 up to 109.09 — just enough to keep SPX elevated.

CL continues to settle lower, and might have trouble holding the SMA10 at 52.56.  A reminder: there’s a neckline there of a H&S Pattern targeting 51.60ish.

I’d hold short as long as SPX can remain below the SMA10 at 2350.22.  If it pops up above it, I’d revert to long for 2359.84 and, secondarily, 2367.98.  On the downside, note that the gap close is at 2344.84, so we could see a bounce there. I’m going to take a break for a couple of hours and see if I can get my energy back.  

UPDATE:  1:42 PM

UPDATE:  2:42 PM

UPDATE:  2:53 PM

Here’s the channel bottom — where it should bounce if it’s going to.  Watch for signs of a reversal.  VIX is still a little shy of its white channel top, so I’m not at all sure that SPX is done. Tight stops are advised.

CL is pushing above its SMA5 10……but, USDJPY is still dropping.

UPDATE:  3:03 PM

USDJPY is ramping, so I’ll cover here and re-short if it doesn’t reverse.  It’s almost as though someone was asleep at the switch.  Ideally, it’ll bounce a bit and then close below the white channel bottom — maybe at the falling white or purple midline (2336 or 2333.8.)  If it ramps into the close, though, the SMA5 200 would get it back to green for the day — perhaps around 2343.

Here’s a close-up with the targets marked.

UPDATE: 3:22 PM

I’d revert to short here and see if we can get a reversal off the SMA5 10 as occurred at 2:35.  Very tight stops, as we should know right away which way it’s going to break.

VIX will likely signal one direction or the other with a bounce off its SMA5 10 or a drop right through it.

USDJPY bounced nicely, but is back below the SMA200.  I’ll take this to mean there’s more downside.

UPDATE:

There’s the white midline and nearly the purple one.  I’d cover here unless you’re planning to hold short overnight.  As always, only do so if you can hedge or handle the gap risk.

I do expect more downside, perhaps even in the next 30 minutes if USDJPY reverses.  There’s still time for one more reversal off the declining SMA5 10.  I’m still looking for 2300-2306 around Apr 25.

UPDATE:  3:42 PM

One more spurt?  Back to short here.

At least that’s what VIX suggests.  While 2334.16 looks interesting, there’s always a chance it’ll break down completely if folks start to panic.  

UPDATE:  3:57 PM

VIX is dipping a little here — just enough to push SPX back to the SMA5 10.  I’d cover here unless you’re planning on holding short overnight.  The usual caveats apply.

 

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