The USDJPY is soaring after the latest machinations out of Japan (rumors of helicopter money), and the futures are yawning.

But, even so, the S&P 500 futures are actually off a little — very unusual behavior for a “market” fueled almost entirely by USDJPY and CL.

CL, for its part, is currently up 1.5% — a very typical snapback rally after losing trend overnight.  Still, ES isn’t responding.

I’d like to think it’s because TPTB would like us to nail our next downside target.  But, I suspect something more important is at work.

continued for members…

After all the suckish earnings reports out in the last 24 hours, there’s plenty of real live selling pressure built up.  Bottom line, it’s all USDJPY and CL can do to keep futures from nosediving.

CL, doing it’s part…

…but, no ES pop.  Just maintaining a channel bottom it fell to after the close yesterday.Today’s outlook:  SPX should finish what it started yesterday before it was so rudely interrupted by algos seeking to put a positive spin on things.  For starters, the red .618 at 2087.94.  There’s also a TL from the Feb 11 lows running through there.

But, the red channel midline at 2082ish (yellow dot) calls out for a tag.   And, as long as we’re in the neighborhood, why not nail the red .786 at 2081.65, which is also the white .886.  And, if that happens, then the SMA10 itself at 2078.63 (red dot) would make perfect sense.

UPDATE:  9:34 AM

That was quite a downward flush on the open.  It lasted all of 1 minute, as the TL connecting recent lows provided support after the .618 was exceeded.  Odds are there’s more coming, though this bounce is pretty substantial.  I’m hanging in there for now.By not breaking out, CL suggests there’s more to come.As does ES, which still looks focused on the H&S target and SMA10 at 2073.43.UPDATE:  10:04 AM

The top of the falling white channel is anyone’s guess, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the SMA5 100 now at 2097ish entered the picture.  But, incorporating this morning’s plunge into the picture makes for a pretty clear channel bottom.  And, it suggests a tag of the SMA10 sometime around 12:40 EDT.Here’s an alternative, showing SPX going sideways for a while to an expanded white channel top (incorporating Wednesday’s high) where the SMA5 100 (yellow) comes into play.I like this one better, and will assume it’s the one in play unless SPX suddenly breaks down through the white TL.  We’ll know for sure if SPX pops through the purple SMA5 50 it’s been bumping up against since 9:45.

If it is the one in play, SPX could also decline to the white midline around 2089, and then hop up to the SMA5 100 at 2095.  We’ll see.

UPDATE:  10:46 AM

There’s the .786/.886 combo.  I’ll cover the short and go long for a bounce — probably up to the falling SMA5 10 at around 2085-2086, but potentially up tot he white midline at 2088.  Tight stops in case I’m way off base.UPDATE:  11:00 AM

CL is bouncing around like crazy (not sure what it’s duty is at the moment?)  SPX’s SMA5 10 is almost on the scene.  Watching to see what happens when it reaches SPX.There’s a lot of time to kill if the 12:35ish timeline is correct.  Maybe a push up to the SMA5 20?  Or, maybe, the falling white channel bottom will just be broken.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE:  11:17 AM

Two days ago, we had a 12:35ish interim low, and SPX bounced just two points off the 11:30 lows.  I’m reverting to short here, even though we’ll probably be right back here after whatever sell off might occur in the next 15 minutes.CL is falling, but probably to support at the white TL.UPDATE:  1:00 PM

CL has been perfectly accommodating in getting SPX down to 2078.63, but USDJPY keeps melting up toward its SMA50.  It’s very annoying that they two algo operators can’t just cooperate.  I have a huge headache from staring at the screen for the past two hours in order to score 3 more lousy points.  So, I’m going to close it out here and go to cash. 

If it dips below 2082.17, by all means short and cover at 2078.63.  But, understand that it might not happen until the close, as that’s when ES’s white TL intersects its SMA10.  I’ll set an alarm to notify me if/when that happens.  But, it’s also possible that the BoJ won’t permit before the close today, or at all.

The “market” is completely broken.  It’s not anywhere close to being a free exchange between willing sellers and buyers.  Most days, I can look past that and trade based on the manipulated goings on.  Other days, it’s just beyond my ability to stomach it.  This is one of those days.

UPDATE:  1:40 PM

What it might look like if SPX can make it back down to 2078 by the EOD.  If it breaks out past the SMA5 100, then I’m afraid the SMA5 200 at around 2096 is the next stop.UPDATE:  3:20 PM

USDJPY, while not exactly plunging, is rolling over.  This might provide SPX the leeway to drop into the close.  But, it’s currently at unchanged on the day, which might be the way they intend to close it.  Back to short, with relatively tight stops in case they’re shooting for the SMA5 200 at 2095.50.  This is not a high probability setup!UPDATE:  3:52 PM

Doesn’t look like they’re going to permit it to sell off at the close.  Shutting it down.