Futures melted up an additional 10 points overnight, largely on another VIX test and USDJPY buoyancy.With ES’ SMA20 nearly at the 2.618 Fib extension and the overhang of two channel tops, we could finally see the pullback discussed yesterday.  If not, it’s a different path all together.

continued for members…

VIX really has nowhere to go… …unless TPTB are ready to go all in on a breakdown of the TL.USDJPY is still in backtest mode on a technical breakdown of the white channel.

Perhaps most significantly, CL has broken through the latest rising TL — suggesting it’s ready to drop.Just waiting for RB to confirm… A drop through the white TL targets 1.35ish. And, I’m still looking for TNX to break down — at least to the red TL currently at 1.626. If ES were to test its SMA10, currently at 3099.43, it would allow SPX to close a gap from Nov 12 at 3102.61.  SPX’s own SMA10 is just below at 3094 but is rising rapidly and should reach 3102 by Wednesday.We discussed ES’ intersecting channels yesterday. Depending on which time frame you examine, the intersection is either today or tomorrow. Interesting news out yesterday on Trump’s unscheduled visit to Walter Reed over the weekend. We’ve discussed the various factions fighting for control of the White House. I believe there is one faction which, though they might support Trump’s agenda, is anxious to see him go. Combined with those who want him gone no matter what, this constitutes potential downside risk for the market — but, one which is (at least) on pause as the impeachment hearings appear to signal his removal or resignation. In short, these folks are unlikely to instigate a crash if it’s not necessary.

Trump’s strong supporters include at least a few pragmatists who must be trying to figure out a way to remove the negative cloud hanging over the Republican Party in time to retain control of the Senate and potentially the White House. Trump’s health issues might provide a convenient exit plan that would result in a Pence presidency leading into the election.

It would allow Trump to exit without alienating his base — clearly an important consideration.  The hitch, of course, is a full pardon from prosecution on federal, state, local and civil issues — something that Pence cannot offer.  But, it’s one step closer to a potential solution.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

Decision time for ES…UPDATE: 3:55 PM

Not much action, but it’s a start.